Features of economic & mathematical modelling for crisis management of beverage production enterprises
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Abstract
The article investigates the specific features and applied aspects of economic and mathematical modelling in the system of crisis management of beverage production enterprises. It is substantiated that the modern business environment is characterized by instability, market turbulence, disruptions in logistics chains, resource price fluctuations and increased competitive pressure, which significantly complicate managerial decision-making. The beverage industry is especially vulnerable to crisis phenomena due to seasonality of demand, limited shelf life of products, dependence on raw material supplies, strict quality standards and high logistics intensity. Under such conditions, traditional intuitive management approaches demonstrate insufficient effectiveness, which determines the need for scientifically grounded quantitative tools. The paper considers the role of forecasting, optimization, financial, logistics and scenario models as instruments for improving planning accuracy, rational allocation of resources, risk assessment and ensuring enterprise sustainability. The advantages of regression and time-series analysis, linear and nonlinear programming, simulation modelling and stochastic methods for supporting managerial decisions are highlighted. Particular attention is paid to the integration of digital technologies, information systems and hybrid modelling approaches combining classical economic and mathematical methods with machine learning and intelligent data processing. It is concluded that the systematic application of modelling tools contributes to cost reduction, profitability growth, increased adaptability and the formation of effective anti-crisis strategies for beverage enterprises.
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