Econometric analysis of trade relations between Azerbaijan, Ukraine and Georgia
Main Article Content
In this article, the integration processes between Azerbaijan, Ukraine and Georgia are considered through the indicators of integratedness of Azerbaijan’s GDP and the trade turnover of this country with the other two. All considered time series are non-stationary. So, there are problems of correct modeling of the corresponding time series, the components of which lead to a deviation from stationarity. The publication uses an econometric cointegration methodology for modeling the relationship between the non-stationary time series. A dynamic model of the long-term equilibrium is built, allowing to qualitatively forecast the state of foreign trade integration of the three countries under consideration and analyze the openness of the Azerbaijani economy in the regional aspect.
Alizade, Arzu Rafik. (2022) “Regarding One Cointegration Task of Trade Relations Between Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Georgia.” Business Inform 7:49–60. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2022-7-49-60
Baliuk, Yu. S. (2021) The Factors of Development of Export-Import Activity of Domestic Industrial Enterprises. Business Inform, no.7:91-100. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2021-7-91-100 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2021-7-91-100
Baliuk, Yu. S. (2022) Modern Strategies of the Export-Import Activity of Industrial Enterprises, a Substantiation. Business Inform, no. 5: 100-107. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2022-5-100-107 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2022-5-100-107
Berk, K. N., and Carey, P. (2009) Data Analysis with Microsoft ExcelTM: Updated for Office 2007. Duxbury Press.
Chebotareva N.N., & Fayzulina, Yu. V. (2016). Analysis of export and import of goods and services in Ukraine. Network journal "Scientific Result". Series "Economic Research", 2, 1(7),.57-63. DOI: https://doi.org//10.18413/2409-1634-2016-2-1-57-63 DOI: https://doi.org/10.18413/2409-1634-2016-2-1-57-63
Dyogtev, A. Margoev, A. Tokarev (2016) Georgia's economy in the space of contradictions between regional powers, MGIMO Review of International Relations, no. 2: 219-233. DOI: https://doi.org/ 10.24833/2071-8160-2016-2-47- 219-233 DOI: https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2016-2-47-219-233
Golovan, D.V. (2012). Dynamics of the structure of foreign trade and the international strategy of economicdevelopment of Ukraine. Economy and management of machinery and equipment enterprises: problems of theory and practice,3(19), 98-205.
Hall, P. (1992). On Bootstrap Confidence Intervals in Nonparametric Regression. Annals of Statistics 20(2), 695-711. DOI: 10.1214/aos/ 1176348652 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176348652
International Monetary Fund http://www.imf.org/external/Publs/ft/ weo/2017/weodata/weoselagr. aspx
Johnson, R. R. (2015) A Guide to Using Eviews with Using Econometrics: A Practical Guide. University of San Diego.
Kalyuzhna, N. G. (2020). International Trade Integration of Ukraine in the context of Deepening Interstate Conflict.The Problems of economy 1(43), 27-35. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-0712-2020-1-27-35 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-0712-2020-1-27-35
Kovtun, T. D., and Matviienko, A. P. (2019) The Current Trends in the International Trade in Goods, the Features of Ukraine's Foreign Trade. Business Inform, no. 9: 28-35. DOI: https://doi.org/ 10.32983/2222-4459-2019-9-28-35 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2019-9-28-35
Moroz, S., Nagyova, L., Bilan, Yu., Horska, E., & Polakova, Z. (2017). The current state and prospects pf trade relationsbetween Ukraine and the European Union: The Visegard vector Economic Annals-XXI, 163(1-2(1)), 14-21. DOI: http://ea21journal.world/index.php/ea-v 163-03 DOI: https://doi.org/10.21003/ea.V163-03
Orudzhev, E.G., & Alizade, A.R. (2020). Cointegration of Trade and Economic Relations between Azerbaijan andUkraine. Journal of Contemporary Applied Mathematics, 2, 83-97. URL: http://journalcam.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/100110.pdf
Orudzhev, E., and Alizade, A. (2021) Cointegration analysis of the impact of Azerbaijan and Ukraine GDPs on the trade turnover between these countries. Journal of International Studies, vol. 14, no. 3: 274-290. DOI: https://doi.org/10.14254/2071-8330.2021/14-3/18 DOI: https://doi.org/10.14254/2071-8330.2021/14-3/18
Silagadze, A. (2020) Global Trends and Some Issues of the Georgian Economy in the Post-Soviet Era.The phenomenon of the market economy: from its origins to the present day. Partnership under risk and uncertainty. Samarkand. 381-394. DOI: https://doi.org/10.34754/ EP.2020.8.8.79304
Verbeek, M. (2012) A Guide to Modern Econometrics. John Wiley & Sons.