INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

. This article is devoted to the analysis and description of Japan’s new vision of its national security in a deteriorating international environment, as well as consequences of such shifts for the regional and global security infrastructure. The authors have highlighted the prerequisites of these changes, taken a look at reactions from key international actors and described Japan’s plans for future engagement with its allies and adversaries.

sin

taking office.M
cron said France and Japan would continue their "joint actions in the Indo-Pacific.""Japan can count on our unfailing support in the face of Pyongyang's violation of international law," he added."France is a leading partner for the realization of a free and open Indo-Pacific," said Kishida."As unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force in the East and South China Sea intensify and the security environment becomes increasingly tense, we wish to continue to cooperate with France," he concluded[7].As for the United Kingdom, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and his British counterp rt, Rishi Sunak, signed an agreement to facilitate visits by Japanese Self-Defense Forces personnel and British troops to each other's country.The two leaders signed the reciprocal access agreement during a meeting in London as part of efforts to reinforce their countries' security cooperation amid China's increasingly hegemonic moves and Russia's aggression against Ukraine.The agreement "brings the security cooperation between Japan and Britain to a new level," Kishida told reporters."I expect

Introduction

For the past decades Europe a d North America have been observing a new, steadily growing in power and influence region -the Indo-Pacific, which today is home to more than a half of the world's population.After recent major shifts in the global security architecture, caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Japan -a major regional player -has decided to reevaluate its role and capabilities in a set of official policy documents, outlining the country's ambitions to strengthen its position and ensure its security and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region.Such drastic shifts in security policy, while not sudden and unforeseen, are likely to tilt the regional balance of power in the years to come.

The dynamic evolution of the security environment Following the dawn of the XXI century the quality of relations between states has been slowly declining.In 2013 Japan adopted its first National Security Strategy, where the unprecedented scale of changing global balance of power, the weakening of global governance and the "gray-zone" problem of the Asia-Pacific were acknowledged.Since then, however, the global security environment has considerably deteriorated.The rise of authoritarian nuclear-p

er stat
s such as Russia, China and North Korea, challenging the western order and institutions, has heavily contributed to the increased uncertainty and competitiveness in the international arena.

Russia in particular has been extremely overt about its perception of international law and territorial integrity of sovereign nations near its border.Over the past two decades the Kremlin has actively endeavored to keep Russia's bordering nations in its sphere of influence by the use of military force and creation of frozen conflict zones.A weak political and economic response from the West, combined with Europe's addiction to Russia's cheap oil and gas, have led Putin to believe he could easily conquer and annex new territories wit out any consequences whatsoever.

China's rapid economic development in the second half of the XX century has created a foundation for its prospects as a great future military and economic power and a dominant regional player.The 20th Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party has solidified Xi's position as the country's


Orléans, France

No 151 supreme leader, thus signaling no prospects of critical change in China's foreign policy priorities.PRC continues to actively develop its military might and challenge the security environment in the Indo-Pacific.Its largest infrastructure project -the Belt and Road initiative, its activities in the East and South China seas and massive economic potential demonstrate China's great ambitions of becoming a superpower.China is also the main economic partner for another significant regional actor -North Korea -with ov r 90% of the country's trade volume being connected with the PRC [15].

DPRK's intense anti-western rhetoric, combined with heavy investments into its nuclear program, have become a major issue for the international community.This problem, however, gained even more attention after North Korea's multiple missile tests in 2022, including an ICBM-class rocket fired in November that reportedly landed 200 kilometers off Japan, spiking worldwide condemnation [18].The reckless behavior of North Korea demonstrates a disregard to international law and spikes concerns about the nation's ambitions in the near future.

All these developments have been perceived by Tokyo as red flags and signals for change.It has therefore become evident that an almost decade old security strategy does not reflect the realities of current world affairs, and that the situation has drastically changed for the worse.Thus, in December 2022, Japan released a new National Security Strategy along with two accompanying documents: National Defense Strategy and Defense Buildup Program, which together provide a comprehensive vision to improve the country's defense posture at the more uncertain and dangerous world stage.While it is likely that the tart of Russia's imperialist war and an increased activity from DPRK and China have speeded up the process, as pointed out by Ankit Panda, Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, these revisions are a result of a much longer period of national security shifts within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), rather than a sudden break [14].Nevertheless, the new policy papers cite some groundbreaking commitments, which will change the image of Japan and exceedingly improve its defense capabilities.


New strategy and new perspective

The new National Security Strategy (hereinafter -NSS), adopted by the Japanese government, has drawn a lot of attention due to its revolutionary nature.It provides strategic guidance for various national security policy areas (including diplomacy, defense, economic security, technology, cyber, maritime, space, intelligence, official development assistance, and energy), sets out national security objectives, and identifies ways and means by which it can deliver on the set objectives [13].Along with two complementing documents, this policy paper aims to broadly readjust Japan's defense capabilities through a complex of investments and structural changes in the country's security sector.

The NSS begins with a recognition of the worst security situation for Japan since the end of WWII, in particular because of the war in Ukraine and reasonable fears of such conflict arising in the Indo-Pacific or East Asian region.During the Shangri-La Dialogue security summit in Singapore the Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida stated that "Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow", implying China's ambitions of "great reunification with Taiwan" [21].Active military buildups in t

Indo-Pacific, gray-zone situations over territories
cross-border cyberattacks on critical civilian infrastructures, and information warfare with the use of disinformation campaigns have also become an every-day reality and present a threat to Japan's national security.Furthermore, such regional actors as the PRC, DPRK and Russia have been addressed as key security challenges.

After Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, many analysts and government officials have been discussing the probability of a similar scenario with regard to Taiwan.While it is believed that Xi has learned from Putin's failure, the regional security situation has by no means improved.The stance of the Chinese government on Taiwan is clear and final -eventual reunification.The People's Republic of China has been thus identified as the greatest strategic challenge for Japan.China's rapid non-transparent military development, its ambitions to change the status quo in the East and South China Seas and its firm ties with Russia have become a matter of serious concern.Hence, it is crucial for Japan to ensure


Orléans, France

No 151 a "constructive and stable relationship" with the PRC, using communication links on multiple levels.The NSS stresses the im ortance of continuing dialogue and cooperation on issues of common interest, as it will contribute to peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.Overall, Japan's diplomatic efforts regarding China will be aimed at encouraging the state to act more transparently and predictably, while simultaneously securing and preserving strong communication ties in the field of security.

North Korea poses an even more grave danger today than ever before.Its advancements in nuclear research and missilerelated technologies have enabled the country to now reach the mainland United States.The constant missile and nuclear tests violate the norms and rules of international law and present a serious threat to its neighbors.Moreover, North Korea plans to swiftly increase its nuclear capabilities in quality and quantity, likely as a consequence of its recent successful ICBM test.For this reason, Tokyo will enhance Japan-ROK and Japan-U.S.-ROK strategic coordination as well as use its diplomatic resources to urge the DPRK to denuclearize and its political means to implement relevant sanctions.

The Russian Federation presents another major strategic challenge.The NSS highlights Russia's acceler tion of military activities in East Asia and in the Northern Territories as well as the country's utterly reckless threats of use of nuclear weapons.The unacceptable and illegal actions taken by a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council have not only shattered the regional and global security environment but also discredited the authority of the United Nations and UNSC in particular.It is evident that Russia is not willing to obey the international rules and norms and does not hesitate to use force in order to achieve its cynical goals of territorial conquest.Concurrently, Ukraine's successful fierce resistance has become a bright example for Japan.By observing the accelerating rates of weapon supply by NATO-members to Ukraine, the officials in Tokyo have realized that there would be more chances to get aid from the allies if Japan had the initial ability to effectively defend itself in the event of an armed attack.


Orléans, France

No 151


Retaliation capacity and increased defense spending

On the grounds that missile related technologies have been on the rise in the region, with constant tests from DPRK and China posing serious threat, the government in Tokyo has concluded that the ability to launch a counteroffensive in case of an attack would be imperative.Thus, an unprecedented decision to acquire counterstrike capabilities in the form of long-range missiles capable of hitting strategic ground targets in the adversary's territory has been taken."Japan wanted to limit its defense spending and try not to acquire second-strike capability.But the situation surrounding us does not permit us to do that," stated Ichiro Fujisaki, former Japanese ambassador to the U.S. [22].This is a major development, as such technology will enable Japan to strike targets way over a thousand kilometers away.Nonetheless, the possibility of "preemptive strikes, namely striking first at a stage when no armed attack has occurred, remain impermissible [13]."Furthermore, as cited in the National Defense Strategy, the very nature of such powerful power projection ability will act as a deterrent in itself, making a potential aggressor to think twice before taking any action [12].

Along with its advanced missile defense network, the counterstrike capacity will provide a second layer of protection, effectively targeting the most crucial military locations, such as missile launch sites, control and command centers, warships etc.As pointed out by Christopher B. Johnstone, a senior adviser and Japan Chair at the CSIS, Japan will require extensive cooperation with the United States to make the counterattack capability effective.Such crucial sectors as targeting, intelligence gathering, surveillance, the battle damage assessment and so forth will require an extensive dialogue and collaboration [8].The Japanese government has already announced its $2 billion plan to purchase the U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles for its naval destroyers, a decision that was welcomed by Washington [5].The new domains of cooperation between Japan and the United States will make the bilateral alliance even stronger.Moreover, with robust self-defense and complementary counterstrike capabilities Japan will acquire a status of


Orléans, France

No 151 more equal strategic partner, as it will no longer have to rely solely on the military might of the U.S. in ensuring its national security.

Another groundbreaking development in the new security policy is a historic increase in defense spending.Japan is aiming to raise its investments in security (previously capped at 1%) to 2% of GDP by FY 2027.With this level of expenditure Tokyo plans to boost its domestic defense production, reinforce the research and development system of new equipment and promote polici s across government in various fields to develop a complex and multilayered system of national security [13].The decision seems to be heavily influenced by the Russian war in Ukraine, which marked the return of territorial invasions in the XXI century.The achievement of the 2% spending target follows NATO's recommended guidelines and is expected to place Japan on the third place in world ranking of defense expenditure [22].In the 5-year term the following investments will be made: $7 billion in cyber warfare, $7 billion

space,
$6 billion towards the development of a sixth-generation fighter aircraft program with the United Kingdom and Italy [1].The highest amount of spending, however, will be aimed at the acquisition and effective use of counterstrike capabilities.

Japan's key and trusted ally The United States has been the most crucial strategic partner for Japan since the end of WWII.The Japan-U.S. Security Treaty along with the Yoshida Doctrine allowed American troops to be stationed in Japan with the purpose of ensuring security, while the post-war country was focused on recovering its economy [11].This paved the way for Japan's rapid economic and technological development and at the same time opened a new door for the United States in the region.For many decades cooperation and partnership in the defense sector between the U.S. and Japan have been based on the principle of "Spear and Shield," respectively.Yet now, with the new security strategy, the r lationship will be more equal in terms of defense capabilities.It is stressed in the NSS that the trans-pacific alliance will remain the cornerstone of Japan's national security policy.Furthermore, Tokyo aims to deepen its engagement with Washington and other allies and


Orléans, France

No 151 like-minded countries to deal with multiple issues of national and international character, including efforts to reform the UNSC, tackling climate change and addressing other global challenges, ensuring Free and Open Indo-Pacific, and strengthening public diplomacy.While bilateral security commitments remain the anchor of this partnership, the United States and Japan increasingly regard the alliance as an instrument to project their combined influence to promote tability and rule of law in a turbulent international system [19].Domestic and international backlash Japan has released a first in nearly 10 years and only its second ever national security strategy and complementary defense planning documents.Today, Tokyo can seemingly count on a slim-but-real majority of public support in pursuing a stronger defense, a political consensus once nearly unthinkable.Several polls from Japanese news agencies demonstrate the public is increasingly willing to involve Japan in Taiwan's defense, adopt counterstrike systems to deter North Korean missile provocations, and more generally increase defense capabilities.The reception of these documents was met with an absence of intense disapproval, a stark difference from other examples of security reform history.The Japanese people now appear more willing than ever to accept their government's long-desired boost in defensive capabilities [1].In addition, it is natural that Tokyo's announcement garnered a wide range of reactions across the globe.Regional attitudes are largely split along a single debate: whether Tokyo is moving away from its "tradition of pacifism" or not [6].

President Joe Biden said that the "United States stands with Japan at this critical moment" as Washington welcomed Japan's new national security strategy, marking a major shift in th t country's post-war defense policy."Our alliance is the cornerstone of a free and open Indo-Pacific and we welcome Japan's contributions to peace and prosperity," Biden tweeted.National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan described Japan's new strategy as a "bold and historic step to strengthen and defend the free and open Indo-Pacific [20]."Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's first visit to No 151

that moves to realize a free and open Indo-Pacific region will progress further."Moreover, Kishida and Sunak welcomed a plan for Japan, Britain and Italy to jointly develop nextgeneration fighter jets and agreed to hold a two-plus-two security meeting of their countries' foreign and defense ministers early [9].

As we move our attention to Italy, during the meeting in Rome, prime minister Giorgia Meloni and her Japanese counterpart have agreed that their respective countries will become strategic partners and ensure cooperation in various sectors, from defense to culture."We had a long talk starting from the xcellent bilateral relations between Italy and Japan, which have an interchange of €12 billion a year", Meloni told the press [16].

Japan's cooperation with ROK has progressed latterly, following a period of "deep ordeal" in the past few years, said president Yoon Suk Yeol, adding that "Relations between Korea and Japan went through the most difficult and deepest ordeal for the past few years, but they are showing a clear trend of improvement recently."Yoon stressed th

Korea and Japan
are "the closest and most important neighbors" that need to cooperate in all fields, including security and the economy.The preside t added the Seoul government will continue to make efforts toward "practical improvements" of the relations.Japanese Prime Minister also pledged to work toward improving bilateral ties in his message delivered by Koichi Aiboshi, Japan's ambassador to Korea [10].

Positive reception also came from India, where former Deputy National Security Advisor SD Pradhan called the documents "a model for other nations having problems with Chinese belligerence," and Taiwan, where President Tsai Ingwen also "welcomed" the move [1].

Meanwhile, Germany maintains a more cautious and conciliatory approach toward China than the United States and other European nations, despite the parallel development of more assertive foreign policy and national security postures, both Japan and Germany have focused on differing threat actors.While Japan is pursuing its ow regional challenges, for Germany it is Russia that poses the biggest threat.To be sure, Japan and Germany's more assertive foreign and defense policies remain a work in progress.Moreover, Germany is in the process of drafting its own National Security Strategy [2].

Unsurprisingly, the strongest voices against the new NSS came from China and North Korea.China said it was "firmly opposed" to and "strongly dissatisfied" with Japan's newly updated key defense-related documents, which describe Beijing as "the greatest strategic challenge" for Tokyo and lodged solemn representations with its neighbor.In a statement, the Chinese Embassy in Tokyo said Japan's move "seriously deviates from the basic facts" and "provokes regional tension and confrontation."It urged Japan not to be obsessed with using the so-called China threat to indulge in its own military expansion.Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin also said at a press conference in Beijing that China urges Japan to "act upon the pol tical consensus that the two countries are cooperative partners and do not pose a threat to each other [4]."

As for North Korea, its spokesperson of the Foreign Ministry issued a statement belittling Japan's announcement of a new National Security Strategy, including Tokyo's willingness to possess counterstrike capabilities."Japan has, in fact, adopted a new security strategy formulating the possession of the capability for preemptive attack on other countries, thus bringing a serious security crisis to the Korean Peninsula and East Asia," Korean Central News Agency, the North's main state-controlled media, quoted the spokesperson as saying."Japan is a war criminal state which inflicted untold misfortune and sufferings upon the Korean people in the past and has not yet honestly liquidated its past crimes, and it has been branded as an enemy state in the U.N. Charter.It will never be welcomed that such a country has openly revealed its dangerous scheme," the North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesperson said, adding that the security environment in the region "has undergone a radical change [17]."

At last, the Russian government included Japan in an official list of countries and regions labeled as "unfriendly" on March 7, 2022.This was followed by t e announcement that Russia had suspended talks on a bilateral peace treaty, which No 151 has yet to be signed since the end of WWII.These measures were retaliation against Tokyo's introduction of sanctions in response to Russian aggression against Ukraine.The Russian government, however, would no doubt insist that it had remained committed to developing close relations with Japan until Tokyo took the "unfriendly" step [3].

A realistic view In the best traditions of realist thought, the groundbreaking shifts in the security strategy of Japan are not surprising, they are coherent.With China and North Korea actively developing its military sectors, including offensive missile-and cyber-related capabilities, and Russia tagging Japan as an unfriendly nation, it is only reasonable that extreme advancements in the defense strategy are essential.Japan acts as a rational actor, which strives to level the regional balance of power as much as it can, for the reason that growing security uncertainty along with structural changes in the contemporary system of international relations, force it to do so.Conclusion Therefore, a gradual deterioration and erosion of interstate affairs over the past decade along with the crush of the global

curity environme
t, provoked by Putin's invasion, have indicated the need for Japan to reassess its capabilities and regional role as a major power.Its updated national security agenda features an improved mixed use of hard and soft power (the so-called "smart power").Tokyo is willing to prioritize its diplomatic resou